In Philippine politics, there is no permanent ally or foe.
Rumors are floating online that President Duterte, who is ending his term without a presidential bet, might just endorse the de facto opposition leader, Vice President Leni Robredo.
That’s both impossible and weirdly possible.
The electorate perceives former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as the continuity candidate. He opened a commanding lead early in the game by uniting with the president’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio. A whopping 60% in the pre-election survey is a first in the post-Edsa revolution. Maintaining his double-digit lead is critical towards his family’s full-fledged comeback in Malacañang by keeping his supporters energized, not jaded.
For months, the political world has been expecting that with the withdrawal of Senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Christopher “Bong” Go, Mr. Marcos Jr. would quickly seize the president’s prized endorsement. The blessing of Mr. Duterte, who will end his term as the most popular post-Edsa president, would be the final piece of the puzzle in his campaign strategy.
But the president’s insinuations that Mr. Marcos Jr. is “weak” and a “cocaine user” dampened whatever pre-conceived notion political experts believed in coming into the elections. This raises the question of whether Mr. Duterte, who allowed the Marcos patriarch to be buried in the heroes’ cemetery amid human rights violations, doesn’t want to be the curtain-raiser for the Marcoses.
History and a tinge of imagination connect the dots in this weird election scenario of the administration betting its chips to the opposition, just more than 50 days before the polls open.
A cold shower, first
Before scrutinizing this weird scenario, supporters of Mrs. Robredo must note that the president lambasted his VP every step of the way.
Just last week, he claimed, without evidence, that ‘dilawans’ – the pejorative term labeling the opposition – and communists were conspiring to disrupt the elections. “It’s that kind of situation that we in the government are watching for. They (communists) might, like I said, create trouble because they have working relations now with the yellows and the election is the objective, really,” he told in an interview with FBI-wanted Apollo Quiboloy.
No matter what, this election would be consequential to Mr. Duterte, who will jolt a race in which he has nothing – or everything – to lose.
For nearly six years, the vice president was at the receiving end of Mr. Duterte’s wrath. He mocked her political strategies, accused her of grandstanding during calamities, claimed she was aiding the communist rebels and threw endless ‘f*ck yous’ in her face.
So, it would be a given for the president to undercut the opposition’s gaining momentum. Besides, his freedom hangs in the balance as Mrs. Robredo has signaled she would permit an investigation from the International Criminal Court (ICC) regarding alleged crimes of humanity committed between 2011 and 2019.
Deep history
But delving into the personal history of Rodrigo Duterte, the tragedy of his father may be his motivation to retaliate against the Marcoses.
Mr. Duterte, known for his antics, may galvanize the election in favor of the opposition to revenge his father, Vicente Duterte, after a humiliating defeat in the 1967 elections that led to his demise three months later.
In “Beyond Will and Power,” the president’s biography by Earl G. Parreño published in 2019, the author recounted the Nacionalista Party’s betrayal when the Duterte patriarch ran for a House seat in Davao Del Sur in 1967, who lost by just 8,000 votes. “In the field, Vicente also saw his support base shrinking by the day as the NP leadership made clear who between him and [Artemio] Loyola to support. President Marcos’s party poured money into Loyola’s campaign,” the book stated.
Nacionalista Party (NP), at the time, was headed by Ferdinand Marcos Sr.
Vicente Duterte was the only official hailing from NP when he served as governor of Davao from 1959 to 1965. When Mr. Marcos Sr. won the presidency, he appointed Mr. Duterte’s father as secretary of Department of General Services, established in 1958 via Executive Order No. 290 to “administer, coordinate, and direct the assignment, regulation, and performance of the functions related to maintenance, custody, and utilization of buildings and real property; procurement, issuance, and utilization of supplies, materials, and equipment; management of government records and documents; and printing and media production services.”
So, if the Duterte patriarch was closely allied with Mr. Marcos Sr., why the betrayal then? Mr. Duterte’s sister, Eleanor, told Howie Severino in “I-Witness: People Power sa Davao” in 2017 that his father couldn’t attain the corruption miring the Marcos administration. “Hindi na rin masuka-suka ng tatay ko ‘yung umpisa na ‘yun ng graft and corruption. Hindi na masuka-suka ng tatay ko, sabi niya kaibigan, just respect my wishes,” she said.
Vicente Duterte was caught flat-footed by the ramifications of the turncoats in his party. He thought that he was still “endeared [by] his legion of friends and admirers” because he “rendered personalized service to his constituents” and had “humble, modest and unassuming self-qualities.”
Contrary to the evidence, Mr. Duterte, in his campaign sortie in Batac, Ilocos Norte in 2016, told supporters that his father “was a close ally of President Marcos until his death.”
Amid the denialism lies the fact of a dark past between a humble leader and an intelligent turncoat – a history that could rhyme in today’s whirlwind elections.
Sweet revenge
The Marcoses’ double whammy against the president could result in a retaliation blowing in their faces.
The first was between their fathers. The second was their matchless convincing powers to slide Mrs. Duterte-Carpio to the No. 2 position, a move that derailed the post-presidency plans of Mr. Duterte.
Mr. Duterte’s succession plans, which all collapsed spectacularly, all had the objectives of retaining his influence and assuring that the remaining days of his life won’t be consumed by an impending trial abroad.
With Mr. Dela Rosa and Go’s survey rankings at a dismal level, the president pinned his hopes that his daughter, leading at the time, would carry the administration torch in 2022. But rumors suggested a private rift between the two, rooted in the separation of Mr. Duterte and Elizabeth Zimmerman and manifested in Mrs. Duterte-Carpio’s actions when she succeeded her father as Davao City Mayor in 2016, including the termination of his city hall subordinates and, as she recently boasted, reducing the billion-peso debt incurred during his father’s term.
But Mrs. Duterte-Carpio chose to share her political power with Mr. Marcos Jr., who’s seeking redemption after his narrow defeat in the 2016 vice-presidential race. Dubbed as UniTeam, they solidified their status as the frontrunners of this election season.
It became evident to Mr. Duterte that his political wattage only applies to local positions. That despite grooming Mr. Go to be his successor, it isn’t enough to convince the plurality to support the administration candidate. It also became evident that the president was shellshocked by his daughter’s decision, carving a path without the makings of the family’s patriarch. “Nagtataka ako, sabi ko, siya ang number 1 sa survey, kung bakit siyang pumayag natatakbo lang ng bise. Bakit ka tatakbo na bise presidente na alam mong mas lamang ka?” he said of his daughter’s decision in November.
Fast forward to March, Mrs. Robredo’s campaign is starting to gain momentum, while Mr. Marcos’s beginning to bog down. The palpable energy in the vice president’s campaign sorties jolts the opposition amid its underdog status. The exhaustion can be felt in the frontrunners’ rallies (Have you seen the Toni Gonzaga video?).
Endorsements began to drop for the vice president but stopped short of endorsing her running mate, Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan. The pattern is revealing: Some local officials are seeking a Ro-Sa tandem, with Mrs. Duterte-Carpio as their vice-presidential bet. Among some Duterte officials, they are pushing for an Is-Sa tandem between Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso and the Davao City mayor.
The biggest twist yet is the backing of Ben Evardone, governor of Eastern Samar and vice president of the ruling PDP-Laban Cusi wing, to Mrs. Robredo. His intention to support the opposition “carries the blessing of the President.”
“For me and for millions of Filipinos, there is only one decisive and compassionate lawyer among those aspiring to be President and she is VP Leni. She’s the only one who can hurdle President Duterte’s standard for his successor,” he said in a statement. With the president opting his successor to be a lawyer, which only qualifies to Mrs. Robredo and Dr. Jose Montemayor Jr., it was a ‘virtual endorsement’ per se to the second female vice president in the country. “We welcome and support the high bar President Duterte has set for his successor. He knows whereof he speaks, and we understand it. It is the same standard with which he tries to measure himself in governing the nation. We will need a President who is determined and forceful in addressing these issues but at the same time one who has compassion for all affected sectors, especially the poor. It’s VP Leni who fits the bill.”
The price to pay
Assuming that Mr. Duterte bestows his blessing to Mrs. Robredo and actively campaigns for the Ro-Sa tandem, and then cruise to victory on May 9, what will happen for the three of them?
Mrs. Robredo, who, through her spokesperson Atty. Barry Gutierrez, said she would accept the president’s endorsement “with no strings attached,” there may be a heavy price to pay, considering Mr. Duterte’s tendency for political pandemonium.
Vice President Duterte could conspire with their majorities in the House and the Senate to impeach and convict President Robredo to reinstate the Duterte clan back in the highest office in the land, ensuring that their family will remain the greatest political force of today. Mrs. Robredo’s critics could implicate her in made-up crimes, such as conniving with the communist rebels or aiding them, perpetrated by the likes of Lorraine Badoy, Antonio Parlade Jr. and Larry Gadon. Though unthinkable, six years of the Duterte administration proved that anything is possible in the Philippines.
The only solace Mrs. Robredo could find should the Ro-Sa tandem succeed is the fact that turncoats in the House and Senate align with the president’s party, not the vice president’s, as she herself discovered when the Aquino administration came to an end mid-2016.
That’s why Mrs. Robredo’s supporters are actively campaigning for Mr. Pangilinan to be insulated from any political maneuverings that could destroy their capacity to lead. But the senator runs only third in the surveys, needing to overcome Mrs. Duterte-Carpio and Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III.
The safest choice
In the end, much as it is weirdly possible for Mr. Duterte to root for her oppositionist VP, reality suggests that he won’t make such a drastic step.
No less than the newly appointed cabinet secretary, Melvin Matibag, said that the president was only mentioning general standards when asked about his preferred successor. “All I can say is there’s no endorsement coming from the president for Vice President Leni Robredo to be elected as the president. The president is setting up standards. He mentioned general standards of what our next president should have. It just so happened that candidate lawyers, dalawa lang sila na kandidatong lawyers,” he said.
History and a tinge of imagination connect the dots in this weird election scenario of the administration betting its chips to the opposition, just more than 50 days before the polls open.
If the president wants to stay away from Mr. Marcos Jr., he could choose among the three other presidential candidates: Mr. Moreno, whose campaign manager engineered the president’s winning strategy in 2016; Sen. Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao, his personal friend for more than two decades; and Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, who, despite leveling criticisms against him, has largely been supportive of his policies.
PDP-Laban officials say that the president would divulge his preferred candidate before the start of the local campaign on March 25. Many expect Mr. Marcos Jr. to receive his blessing, but a March surprise could occur.
No matter what, this election would be consequential to Mr. Duterte, who will jolt a race in which he has nothing – or everything – to lose.
Featured image from Al Jazeera.
The Edj View 